March 16 carryover picks at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Turfway

March 16th, 2024

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in a trio of non-jackpot carryovers on Saturday at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park.

Aqueduct, Race 3: $75,634 Pick 6 carryover (2:20 p.m. ET)

The feature event in Aqueduct’s $75,634 Pick 6 carryover is Race 6, the Cicada S. for three-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on dirt. Among the five entrants, #1 Ghalia Princess (4-5) is a compelling favorite. The daughter of American Pharoah beat a couple of next-out winners in her Jan. 20 debut over this track and distance, then followed up with a respectable runner-up effort in Aqueduct’s seven-furlong Ruthless S.

But don’t count Maryland raider #4 Miss Harriett (7-2) out of the mix. The two-time stakes winner has run just as fast as Ghalia Princess from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and enters off a gate-to-wire win in the seven-furlong Wide Country S. at Laurel Park. Some bettors will single Ghalia Princess at a short price, but we recommend using Miss Harriett in equal strength. It’s encouraging that Miss Harriett is picking up hot jockey Kendrick Carmouche, who has won with 12 of his last 23 mounts at Aqueduct.

Fair Grounds, Race 5: $4,472 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)

Looking for a single to build tickets around while pursuing the $4,472 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds? Check out Triple Crown nominee #1 Gun Party (5-2) in Race 8, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for three-year-olds.

A beautifully bred son of Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Carina Mia, Gun Party ran well in his debut sprinting six furlongs over a sloppy track at Fair Grounds, rallying from midfield to finish second. The winner, Just a Touch, came back to finish a good second in the Gotham (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Even in defeat, Gun Party posted a sharp 90 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number for Saturday’s conditions. He’s bred to thrive while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles and should be formidable in his second start, hence our willingness to single Gun Party in the Pick 6.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $8,860 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Saturday at Turfway Park features an $8,860 Super High 5 carryover. The evening finale is Race 8, a $5,000 claimer for older horses racing one mile on Tapeta.

An 11-horse field has turned out and from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, #5 Big Beautiful Wall (5-2) is the runner to beat. Whereas his 10 rivals have struggled to crack the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau that stands as the par winning number for Saturday’s conditions, Big Beautiful Wall has matched or exceed that number in two of his last three starts, and four of his last six.

That includes an 80 figure from Big Beautiful Wall’s Tapeta debut last month. In a $5,000 claimer racing one mile at Turfway, Big Beautiful Wall tracked a modest pace before taking over down the lane to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Trainer Bernard Dunham strikes at a 37% rate with last-out winners, and Big Beautiful Wall still has upside while making only his second start on synthetic, so we recommend keying Big Beautiful Wall on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!