Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Debutante Stakes superfectas

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, July 23 at Finger Lakes and Assiniboia Downs, along with horses to play in the $969 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

After struggling in a series of $14,000 claimers at Saratoga and Aqueduct, #3 Norgay (8-5) took his game to Finger Lakes and stepped forward. In an $11,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs, he tracked the pace and took over the lead before faltering to finish seventh. Then in a 5 1/2-furlong $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three races, Norgay tracked the pace before closing to finish second by a head, earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

Norgay is sticking to the $5,000 class level on Tuesday. None of his rivals have recently posted a Speed rating higher than 73, so a repeat of Norgay’s last effort should be sufficient to yield victory.

#4 Hutch (5-2) and #5 Thundering March (7-2) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Norgay (8-5)
• #4 Hutch (5-2)
• #5 Thundering March (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 4,5 ($30)

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Debutante S. (five furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

Five of the six entrants in this stakes for two-year-old fillies are exiting a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on July 9 at Assiniboia Downs, in which #1 Welcometohollywood (3-5) tracked a duel before taking over to win by three lengths. She looks ready to win right back over stablemate #3 Gee I’m Foxy (4-1), the runner-up on July 9 who is adding Lasix for her second start.

#6 Another Command (6-1) and #5 Twolefttoload (9-2), third and fourth on July 9, are other logical contenders. We’ll mix them into the underneath slots of two superfecta tickets.

Selections

• #1 Welcometohollywood (3-5)
• #3 Gee I’m Foxy (4-1)
• #5 Twolefttoload (9-2)

Wagers

• $8 Superfecta: 1 with 3 with 5,6 with 5,6 ($16)
• $7 Superfecta: 1 with 5,6 with 3 with 5,6 ($14)
  Total: $30

Asssiniboia Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#8 Ice Storm (1-1) might be 0-for-19 with eight runner-up finishes under his belt, but he appears to have found the right spot to shine. He exits a trio of top-three finishes in maiden special weight sprints at Assiniboia Downs and may improve while stretching out over one mile; he’s finished second in three of his eight starts over this distance, including in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Santa Anita last year.

Adding to the appeal of Ice Storm is the fact he campaigns for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Ronald Ali and Carlos Moreno, who have won at a 38% rate teaming up together over the last two months.

Let’s bet Ice Storm over the stakes-experienced #5 Golden Diversion (5-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #8 Ice Storm (1-1)
• #5 Golden Diversion (5-2)
• #7 Pino Bambino (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 8 with 5

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $969 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

Planning to play Tuesday’s $969 Early Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of non-favored runners you’ll want to include on your tickets:

Race 3: #6 S S Fun and Games (9-2)

Only six horses have entered this six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses. None of the experienced runners have posted a Brisnet Speed rating equal to or higher than the par winning number (79) for these conditions, so first-time starter S S Fun and Games is worth using as the 9-2 fourth choice on the morning line.

S S Fun and Games is trained by Randall Russell, who has gone 2-for-10 (20%) debuting horses at Presque Isle since 2023. S S Fun and Games has been cranking out fast workouts at Presque Isle, including five furlongs from the starting gate in :59, so the three-year-old gelding appears to have some talent. Don’t leave this live longshot off your tickets—he won’t have to be a superstar to beat Tuesday’s field.

Race 4: #5 Susanoo (9-2)

Morning line favorites #8 Most Divine (5-2) and #3 Sensible Marriage (7-2) both look like good fits for this $7,500 maiden claiming class level. Sensible Marriage finished second in a race like this two starts back, while Most Divine is dropping in class out of $15,000 maiden claimers.

But our top choice to win this one-mile and 70-yard contest for fillies and mares is Susanoo, the 9-2 third choice on the morning line. She misfired in a $25,000 maiden claimer over the Penn National turf course last time out, finishing eighth. But two starts back, in her only start so far on Tapeta, Susanoo ran third in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Presque Isle.

That effort yielded a 67 Brisnet Speed rating, two points higher than the par winning number (65) for Tuesday’s conditions. Now she’s making her first start for trainer Eduardo Rojas, a 24% winner with horses competing for the first time under his care and a 31% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

In other words, Susanoo should be formidable while plunging down to the $7,500 level. If she wins at anywhere near her morning line odds, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a nice Pick 5 payoff.

Good luck!