Aqueduct, Gulfstream carryovers and a BCBC exacta bet

J. Keeler Johnson analyzes carryovers at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park, then shares a cold exacta to play in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge at Del Mar.

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 5: $34,909 Pick 6 carryover (1:55 p.m. ET)

Assuming Saturday’s card at Aqueduct goes off as planned (the last two racing days have been canceled due to poor weather), there will be a $34,909 carryover available to chase in the $1 Pick 6.

The feature event in the sequence is Race 9, the $150,000 Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship S. taking place over six furlongs on turf. If it is indeed run on turf as scheduled, #3 Outlaw Kid (5-2) is a logical favorite while dropping in class off a close sixth-place finish in the Woodford (G2).

But if the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship is switched to dirt, the complexion of the field could change dramatically. Main-track-only entrants #9 Damon’s Mound (3-1), #10 Gatsby (5-1), #11 Bouncer (2-1), #12 Over and Ollie (4-1), and #13 Barksdale (9-2) would join the mix and complicate the handicapping process.

Of the quintet, we narrowly prefer Over and Ollie. During the summer, he wired a $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga with a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating. He’s started only twice since then, finishing 10th in a deep edition of the Forego (G1) before losing his rider in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer.

A dirt-track edition of the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship could be a good fit for Over and Ollie.

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $86,818 Pick 5 carryover (3:09 p.m. ET)

There’s an enticing $86,818 carryover up for grabs in Gulfstream Park’s 50-cent Late Pick 5.

The opening leg of the sequence is Race 7, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has gone 5-for-19 (26%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Gulfstream this meet, with 74% of his starters finishing in the top three.

These stats suggest Joseph’s unraced juveniles #3 Solitude Dude (3-1) and #4 Cruisin Crossbay (5-2) are the horses to beat in Race 7. Of the pair, we give a slight edge to Cruisin Crossbay, who has posted quicker workouts than Solitude Dude. But Pick 5 bettors may wish to include them both.

Tournament Watch

Del Mar: Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) Day 2

Editor's note: The following analysis has been updated following the scratches of #4 Tamara (7-2) and #6 Sweet Azteca (2-1) from the Filly & Mare Sprint.

The second and final day of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) at Del Mar requires players to bet a minimum of $600 per race in at least seven of the nine Breeders’ Cup Saturday races.

First on the agenda is Race 4, the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). The scratches of Sweet Azteca and Tamara have taken two key contenders out of the race, so we suggest betting a cold exacta keying #8 Hope Road (4-1) on top of #9 Richi (5-1).

Hope Road enters off a flashy series of workouts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. She was last seen winning the Ballerina H. (G1) at Saratoga in decisive fashion with a sharp 103 Brisnet Speed rating. Her combination of tactical speed and finishing power should allow her to track the pace and kick on to beat this depleted Filly & Mare Sprint field.

Hope Road's stablemate Richi has spent her last four starts running long, winning the Santa Maria (G2) and placing twice at the Grade 1 level. But she's also a capable sprinter; last winter, she won the Las Flores (G3) and finished third (only 1 1/4 lengths behind Hope Road) in the Santa Monica (G2). Cutting back to seven furlongs may trigger her best effort of the season. 

Good luck!