Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: All-stakes Pick 3 at Prairie Meadows

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 10 at Prairie Meadows, along with horses to single in Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Colonial Downs, Ellis Park, and Saratoga.

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• Late Pick 5 Insurance at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers at Colonial Downs if you have four out of five winning legs, each racing Friday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $68 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 7/12 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Qualifier to 7/18 Haskell Handicapping Challenge
• $400 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 7/11 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $88 Charles Town Feeder to 7/17 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Prairie Meadows: Race 5: Iowa Distaff S. (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 8:51 p.m. ET)

#5 Good Cheer (3-5) won her first seven starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), before ending 2025 with a series of three defeats at the Grade 1 level. Dropping sharply in class for her four-year-old debut should make Good Cheer tough to beat for trainer Brad Cox, a 27% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s single Good Cheer to start a Pick 3.

Selections

• #5 Good Cheer (3-5)
• #1 Queen Azteca (3-1)
• #2 Miss Authentic (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Pick 3: 5 with 7 with 1

Prairie Meadows: Race 6: Prairie Gold Lassie S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:22 p.m. ET)

#7 Valkyrie (4-1) led all the way to win her debut dashing 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, defeating next-out winner #1 Cardio Cat (5-2) by one length. Then—following a two-month break—Valkyrie stepped up in class for Churchill’s six-furlong Debutante S. and finished fourth.

Valkyrie is wheeling back on short rest for the Prairie Gold Lassie and is eligible to rebound with a strong showing. We’ll take a stand and single her in our Pick 3, then key her over Cardio Cat and #6 My Kid’s Said No (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Valkyrie (4-1)
• #6 My Kid’s Said No (7-2)
• #1 Cardio Cat (5-2)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: 7 with 1,6 ($10)

Prairie Meadows: Race 7: Iowa Oaks (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 9:53 p.m. ET)

#1 Mizumi (8-5) has opened her career with back-to-back wins for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. After nabbing her debut dashing 6 1/2 furlongs, she pounced to victory by 3 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Summertime Oaks (G3).

Mizumi appears well-spotted to snag another stakes win in the Iowa Oaks. We’ll single her to conclude our Pick 3, then key her over #4 Grace Is Free (5-2) in an exacta. The latter filly has gone 2-for-2 competing against stakes competition at Prairie Meadows.

Selections

• #1 Mizumi (8-5)
• #4 Grace Is Free (5-2)
• #3 Shilling (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $4,038 Pick 6 carryover (1:35 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for two race days in a row, the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs boasts a double carryover worth $4,038 for Friday’s card.

The Pick 6 sequence is highly competitive. The six races have drawn 61 horses (averaging nearly 10.2 per race), and there are 931,840 possible outcomes before scratches.

Finding a trustworthy single will help reduce the cost and complexity of assembling Pick 6 tickets. Our best recommendation is #8 Lion of Justice (5-2) in Race 6, a seven-furlong dirt allowance.

Lion of Justice ran twice in route races last year. First, he wired his debut racing one mile at Colonial Downs, beating next-out winner Dettori by 6 1/2 lengths. Then he tackled a 1 1/16-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, in which he closed ground nicely through the final furlong to finish second by a neck.

Cutting back to seven furlongs for his four-year-old debut shouldn’t bother Lion of Justice. Keep in mind, he’s a full-sibling to Everso Mischievous and Notso Mischievous. Everso Mischievous won the seven-furlong Harrods Creek S. and one-mile Forty Niner (G2), and Notso Mischievous scored three allowance wins sprinting six furlongs, so Lion of Justice is bred for speed.

Throw in the fact trainer Brad Cox wins at a 27% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Lion of Justice is a logical single candidate in this difficult Pick 6.

Ellis Park: Race 5: $50,605 Pick 5 carryover (2:44 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Ellis Park features a lucrative $50,605 carryover on Friday.

One of the most challenging legs of the sequence is Race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Eight of the 12 entrants are first-time starters, so there isn’t much form to analyze.

Among the experienced runners, #5 Epic Fashionista (7-2) is perhaps the most intriguing. She debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Churchill Downs and showed speed before tiring to finish sixth. Her pedigree offers potential for success while switching to turf, and trainer Mark Casse wins at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters, so Epic Fashionista is a logical win contender.

But #3 Crack On (12-1) can’t be dismissed either—not after overcoming a troubled start to rally and finish third on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. And first-time starter #1 Homeawayfromhome (9-2) enters off a bullet workout for red-hot trainer Brendan Walsh, suggesting she has the talent to factor.

We recommend using these three in the Pick 5.

Saratoga: Race 5: $69,891 Pick 6 carryover (3:20 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Saratoga includes a $69,891 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Bettors looking for a single to build tickets around are advised to check out #5 Jackie the Joker (8-5) in Race 8, a $12,500 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs over the main track.

Jackie the Joker enters in hot form. The speedy mare has wired her last two starts dashing seven furlongs at Aqueduct. First, she took a $10,000 claimer by a nose with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating. Then she trounced a $16,000 claimer by 6 1/4 lengths with an 85 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other Race 8 entrants have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80 in their last two starts apiece. Since there isn’t an overabundance of pace on paper in Race 8, Jackie the Joker has every chance to shake loose up front, run another Brisnet Speed rating in the mid-80s, and secure her third straight win.

Good luck!