Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Colonial’s $38,677 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 20 at Colonial Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a horse to single in Colonial’s $38,677 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• 15% Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at GBI Racing: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at select GBI tracks from Monday, Aug. 10 through Monday, Aug. 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $75 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/23 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $140 Colonial Downs Feeder to 8/28 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $250 Saratoga Feeder to 8/22 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $96 Charles Town Feeder to 8/27 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 1:02 p.m. ET)

Unraced juvenile filly #6 Diamond Deb (30-1) is conditioned by up-and-coming trainer Abraham Gardea, who has gone 2-for-5 (40%) saddling first-time starters this year.

Diamond Deb recently breezed a fast half-mile in :47 3/5 at Colonial Downs, and she’ll be guided by apprentice jockey Taylor Kingsley, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance.

There’s a lot to like about Diamond Deb’s chances, so let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #6 Diamond Deb (30-1)
• #5 For the Money (3-5)
• #7 Empress Warrior (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Diamond Deb

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 1:34 p.m. ET)

#4 Winterfell (6-1), a son of Arrogate, showed some ability back in 2024, winning the City of Laurel S. and placing fifth (beaten only 3 1/4 lengths) in the Malibu (G1).

Winterfell missed all of 2025 and has run only once this year, finishing third in a seven-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer in January at Santa Anita. He’s 3-for-3 competing outside of California, and he won a couple of route races in 2024, so stretching out over one mile at Colonial Downs could put Winterfell in the hunt for victory. It helps that trainer Brittany Russell wins at a lofty 30% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Let’s bet Winterfell to win and key him over logical favorite #3 Caldera (4-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Winterfell (6-1)
• #3 Caldera (4-5)
• #1 Adero (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Winterfell
• $15 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 6:18 p.m. ET)

#8 Beijing (4-1) has spent his last two starts competing in maiden special weights on turf, running second at Churchill Downs and fifth at Saratoga. But you can make a case he’s better on dirt. In his debut, he finished second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, earning a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other horses entered in Race 9 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85. Hot trainer William Walden (a 50% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) strikes at a 29% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, so returning to dirt can send Beijing to the winner’s circle.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #6 Grande Sorpreso (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #8 Beijing (4-1)
• #6 Grande Sorpreso (5-2)
• #3 Golden Decree (2-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #8 Beijing
• $15 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $1,843 Pick 6 carryover (1:34 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 4: $38,677 Pick 5 carryover (2:05 p.m. ET)

A pair of non-jackpot carryovers add betting value to the Thursday card at Colonial Downs.

The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 has tossed up a modest $1,843 carryover, while the prize pool for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 is substantially larger: $38,677.

The two wagers overlap, with the Pick 6 starting in Race 3 and the Late Pick 5 kicking off in Race 4. The final leg of both sequences is Race 8, a $16,000 claimer in which #5 Mr Flowers (7-5) looms as a viable single to build tickets around.

Best single: Race 8, #5 Mr Flowers (7-5)

Race 8 is taking place over one mile on turf, and the configuration should suit Mr Flowers just fine.

Mr Flowers competed three times over the Colonial Downs turf course last year. The Jamie Ness trainee finished third in a one-mile $50,000 starter allowance, first in a 1 1/16-mile $50,000 claimer, and second (beaten only a nose) in a one-mile $50,000 claimer.

This year, Mr Flowers has started only twice on turf. He tired after tracking the pace in a 1 1/16-mile $45,000 starter optional claimer at Aqueduct, finishing seventh. But then he bounced back nicely in a $30,000 claimer over the same distance at Laurel Park, carving out the pace before tiring in the final furlong to finish third by two lengths. The runner-up, Patrick’s Promise, flattered the form by returning to win his next start in a $30,000 starter optional claimer at Colonial Downs.

Returning to Colonial Downs and dropping in class for a $16,000 claimer might be all Mr Flowers needs to visit the winner’s circle. The vast majority of his Race 8 rivals have recently lost at this class level or lower, so the fact Mr Flowers is exiting tougher races is significant.

It’s also encouraging to note Mr Flowers is reuniting with jockey Mychel Sanchez, who was aboard when Mr Flowers won at Colonial last year. Over the last two months, Sanchez has won at a 20% rate teaming up with Ness.

For all these reasons, Mr Flowers looms as a compelling single.

Good luck!