Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Virgin Colada looks unstoppable

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Aug. 28, at Delaware Park and Saratoga, along with a single for the $2,296 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Scudetto (2-1) didn’t show much when debuting with a sixth-place finish in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. But dropping in class while shipping to Delaware Park can trigger a turnaround; trainer Jorge Delgado wins at a 25% rate with shippers and at a 40% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

#7 Scott Twentytwo (3-1), a first-time starter entering off a bullet half-mile workout from the Delaware Park starting gate, can complete the exacta for hot trainer Jamie Ness.

Selections

• #4 Scudetto (2-1)
• #7 Scott Twentytwo (3-1)
• #5 Where’s My Chew (6-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #4 Scudetto
• $8 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Delaware Park: Race 7: $34,000-$30,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#2 Stage Left (5-2) has placed multiple times at the graded stakes level, including when last seen in the March 2 Tom Fool H. (G3) at Aqueduct. The eight-year-old gelding has also won his lone start to date at Delaware Park, romping by 4 1/2 lengths in a $50,000 starter optional claiming sprinting six furlongs last summer.

Returning to Delaware while dropping in class can send Stage Left to the winner’s circle for hot trainer David Jacobson, a 40% winner at Delaware Park this meet. The presence of jockey Samuel Camacho Jr. (a 42% winner at the current Delaware meet) cements Stage Left as an upset threat against #6 Spikezone (9-5), who can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Stage Left (5-2)
• #6 Spikezone (9-5)
• #1 Freedom Road (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Stage Left
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $25

Saratoga: Race 8: P. G. Johnson S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Virgin Colada (2-1) unleashed a gigantic homestretch rally to win her debut over this course and distance last month. The Chad Brown trainee gained 4 3/4 lengths through the final furlong alone to prevail by a half-length, and the form was flattered when third-place finisher Rare Art returned to win a similar race.

Virgin Colada looks like a possible graded stakes star in the making, so let’s place a large win bet on the daughter of More Than Ready.

Selections

• #2 Virgin Colada (2-1)
• #6 Lemonpeppasteppa (12-1)
• #5 Second Chance (20-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #2 Virgin Colada

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,296 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved two days in a row, the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features a $2,296 double carryover for Wednesday’s card.

There are some challenging races in the sequence. Consider race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. The nine-horse field includes five first-time starters. None of the experienced runners have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 63, which is 10 points lower than the par winning number (73) for Wednesday’s conditions, so there’s a strong chance one of the unraced youngsters will win on debut. But which one? They’re tough to split, and spreading deep might be the best strategy for survival.

Fortunately, race 4 looks more straightforward. The opening leg of the Late Pick 5 is a $6,250 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta contest drew only seven horses, and five of them are exiting defeats over this track and class level. A sixth, #6 Sweet Nola (15-1), is facing tougher company after winning a $6,250 claimer for non-winners of two races.

This stands in contrast to morning-line favorite #1 Cat One (7-5). In her lone start to date over the Presque Isle Tapeta, Cat One smashed a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two races, tracking the early pace before taking command to win the one-mile contest by 7 1/2 lengths over Sweet Nola.

Cat One’s latest start came in a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of three races. Despite switching to turf at Colonial Downs, Cat One stayed in touch with the early pace before fighting on to finish third in the 1 1/16-mile event, earning a career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Wednesday’s field.

Returning to the Presque Isle Tapeta and descending to the $6,250 level should make Cat One tough to beat for red-hot trainer Riley Mott, a 62% winner at Presque Isle this meet and a 50% winner with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. The presence of jockey Antonio Gallardo adds to the appeal; Gallardo has won with 31% of his mounts at Presque Isle this meet and has gone 5-for-7 (71%) teaming up with Mott over the last two months.

In short, what’s not to like? Cat One is shaping up as a viable single to start the Late Pick 5.

Good luck!