Handicapping Churchill’s $4,059 Super High 5 carryover

June 9th, 2024

If you’re in the mood for more betting action the day after the Belmont (G1), check out the Sunday card at Churchill Downs, which features a $4,059 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 1, a $40,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting five furlongs on dirt. With 11 horses in the entries, including four first-time starters, it looks like a tricky field at first glance. But dig deeper, and a handful of fillies loom as perfectly logical contenders.

Take morning line favorite #5 Glamourcents (3-1). She flashed early speed when finishing third by 3 1/2 lengths in her debut over this track and class level on May 19. Trainer Mary Lightner wins at only a 9% rate with first-time starters, a percentage that improves sharply to 44% with second-time starters, so Glamourcents has a good chance to move forward and vie for victory on Sunday.

#1 Grace On Grace (7-2) is another must-use filly. She’s finished fifth and fourth in her first two starts sprinting five furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs. The winner of her debut, Aoraki, returned to finish second by a head in the Astoria S. on Thursday at Saratoga, so Grace On Grace has kept good company and should appreciate dropping in class for a $40,000 maiden claimer. It helps that trained Larry Demeritte wins at a 20% rate with horses running at the maiden claiming level for the first time.

At higher odds, a couple of first-time starters appeal. #2 Thunder Bern (12-1) enters off fast half-mile workouts from the Turfway Park starting gate in :47 1/5 and :47 2/5 for trainer Ethan West, who wins at a respectable 15% with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Meanwhile, #7 Baytown Boujee (10-1) has put together decent half-mile workouts at Keeneland for trainer Paul McEntee, who has saddled one winner and one top-three finisher from four starters debuting at the maiden claiming level in recent years.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

  • $1 Super High 5: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,7,9,10 with 2,7,9,10 with 2,7,8,9,10,11 ($96)

Good luck!