Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: A couple of cold exactas

April 15th, 2024

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 15 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including two cold exactas.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 4: Allowance (one mile, 3:36 p.m. ET)

#5 Lake Bee (7-5) has posted 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings in each of his last four starts, including a 93 when dominating a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Sam Houston. Most recently, he tracked and then set a fast pace in the six-furlong Welder S. at Will Rogers Downs before hanging on to win by half a length.

Only one of Lake Bee’s rivals has ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80 (that being an 86), so the favorite should be tough to catch while stretching out over one mile. Let’s key Lake Bee on top of an exacta using last year’s one-mile Don C. McNeill S. winner #3 Chasin Jason (3-1) for second place.


  • #5 Lake Bee (7-5)
  • #3 Chasin Jason (3-1)
  • #1 Okie Smoke (7-2)


  • $15 Exacta: 5 with 3

Will Rogers Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:30 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #6 Breakable Code (3-1) has put together a sharp work tab in preparation for his debut, highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Will Rogers Downs starting gate in :47. Hot trainer Joe Offolter (a 24% winner at Will Rogers Downs this meet) has won at a 19% rate saddling first-time starters at this track since 2019, so there’s a lot to like about Breakable Code’s chances.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Breakable Code.


  • #6 Breakable Code (3-1)
  • #7 War Rascal (8-1)
  • #4 Rockin Boots (4-1)


  • $20 to win on #6 Breakable Code

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Cactus Wren S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#2 Katar (3-5) has dominated three of his last four starts, most recently wiring a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Turf Paradise. Three starts back, he trounced a couple of next-out winners by 5 1/4 lengths in the six-furlong Inaugural S. at Arapahoe Park.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 95, 83, and 87 under his belt, Katar is hands-down the horse to beat on Monday, especially since jockey Karlo Lopez and trainer Ryan Kenney have gone 4-for-9 (44%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Since there’s a fair amount of speed in the Cactus Wren field, we’ll bet Katar over stretch-running #1 Renew (6-1) in the exacta.


  • #2 Katar (3-5)
  • #1 Renew (6-1)
  • #5 Res Ipsa Loquitur (5-1)


  • $15 Exacta: 2 with 1

Good luck!