2025 Breeders' Cup: 10 observations from the morning-line odds

Fields have been finalized for the 14 Breeders’ Cup races taking place on Friday and Saturday at Del Mar. Morning-line odds suggest we’re in for some fascinating racing.

Here are my top 10 observations from the 2025 Breeders’ Cup morning line odds:

1. Chalky outcomes could be in the cards

Formidable favorites abound at the 2025 Breeders’ Cup. Six of the 14 morning-line favorites are listed at 9-5 or lower. It wouldn’t be shocking to see favorites compile a win rate around 50%.

2. The heaviest favorite is Ted Noffey

Unbeaten Hopeful (G1) and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner #8 Ted Noffey is the heaviest favorite of the Breeders’ Cup. He’s listed at 4-5 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and could conceivably become the shortest-priced winner in Juvenile history, beating Chief’s Crown (7-10) from the inaugural edition in 1984.

3. True Love, Motorious, and Gezora are slim favorites

#9 True Love in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), #1 Motorious in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), and #5 Gezora in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) are the highest-priced morning-line favorites, each offering 7-2 odds.

4. Juvenile Turf Sprint is the most wide-open race

Six of the 12 horses in the main body of the field for the Juvenile Turf Sprint are listed at single-digit odds. That’s the highest number in any Breeders’ Cup race, which speaks to the wide-open nature of this year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint.

5. Aidan O’Brien is poised for a huge weekend

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won a record-equaling 20 Breeders’ Cup races. He trains four morning-line favorites in 2025: #9 True Love (7-2) in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, #13 Precise (6-5) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), #14 Gstaad (9-5) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), and #8 Minnie Hauk (8-5) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

6. Contrary Thinking is the longest shot

Only one horse across the 14 Breeders’ Cup races is listed at odds higher than 30-1. That’s #4 Contrary Thinking, the pacemaker for stablemate #7 Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Contrary Thinking is a 50-1 longshot.

7. Minnie Hauk, Rebel’s Romance dominate the Turf

The Breeders’ Cup Turf is shaping up as a two-horse race between multiple Group 1 winner #8 Minnie Hauk (8-5) and two-time Turf winner #1 Rebel’s Romance, who is seeking a historic three-peat. None of the other dozen entrants are listed below 8-1.

8. Classic is contentious without Sovereignty

2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner #6 Sovereignty was originally a heavy 6-5 favorite in the Classic, but after scratching due to a temperature, the morning line has been revised. #1 Fierceness is now the slim 5-2 favorite with four others listed between 7-2 and 6-1, suggesting the Classic will be highly competitive.

9. Juan Hernandez named to ride three favorites

Juan Hernandez has topped the jockey standings at each of the last five Del Mar meets. He’s yet to win a Breeders’ Cup race, but that could change in 2025. He’s named to ride three favorites: #7 Explora (5-2) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), #6 Sweet Azteca (2-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), and #8 Seismic Beauty (9-5) in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

10. Many past winners aren’t projected to repeat

Seven past Breeders’ Cup winners will seek additional glory in 2025. Only 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner #1 Fierceness, a 5-2 shot in the Classic, is favored to win. Three of the seven past winners are midrange longshots listed between 8-1 and 10-1 on the morning line.