Which prep races have produced the most Kentucky Derby winners?

Not all Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races are equally productive. Some Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers yield Kentucky Derby winners with greater frequency than others.

Let’s crunch the numbers to determine which Kentucky Derby prep races produce the most Kentucky Derby winners.

Research methodology

Using data from the Kentucky Derby media guide, supplemented by our own research, we have analyzed the productivity of the 36 races that comprise the 2025-26 American Road to the Kentucky Derby.

We’ve divided the 36 races into four categories:

• Top-tier preps worth 100 points to the winner, contested four to six weeks before the Kentucky Derby.
• Second-tier preps worth 50 points to the winner, grouped with the Lexington (G3), a 20-point prep that serves as the last leg of the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
• Early-season three-year-old races worth between 10 and 20 points to the winner.
• All races for two-year-olds, the majority worth 10 points to the winner.

We’ll analyze the most productive prep races in each category, considering not only the number of Kentucky Derby winners they’ve produced, but also the age of each race. The older the prep race, the more opportunities it’s had to produce Kentucky Derby winners, and we don’t want to unfairly penalize young (but productive) prep races in our analysis.

Data analysis

Category 1: Top-tier prep races worth 100 points to the winner

Seven top-tier preps award 100 points to the winner. Among these, the Florida Derby is the most productive, churning out 26 Kentucky Derby winners in total, including eight since 2000. That’s remarkable considering it’s the second-youngest of the top-tier preps, dating back to 1952.

The Blue Grass at Keeneland ranks second with 23 Kentucky Derby winners, edging out the slightly younger Wood Memorial (20 winners) and Santa Anita Derby (19 winners). However, the Blue Grass has produced only one Kentucky Derby winner since 2000, so it’s riding a cold streak.

There’s a sharp falloff in lifetime productivity to the Arkansas Derby (eight winners) and the Louisiana Derby (five winners), even though the Arkansas Derby is 90 years old and the Louisiana Derby is 132 years old. However, the Arkansas Derby has been hot since 2000, producing five Kentucky Derby winners, tied for the second-most behind the Florida Derby.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks is the youngest top-tier qualifier and has only recently started awarding 100 points to the winner. Nevertheless, it’s produced three Kentucky Derby winners, including two since 2000.

Category 2: Second-tier prep races are primarily worth 50 points to the winner

Among the second-tier preps—which mostly serve as local stepping stones to the top-tier preps—two tower above the rest: the Fountain of Youth and the San Felipe. Each race has produced 15 Kentucky Derby winners, with the Fountain of Youth ranking as slightly more productive since it’s 10 years younger than the San Felipe. However, the San Felipe has produced more winners since 2000 (four) than the Fountain of Youth (three).

The remaining second-tier preps have produced no more than three winners apiece. The Virginia Derby has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, but that isn’t surprising since it was inaugurated in 2025. (A turf race previously known as the Virginia Derby continues to be run under a different name; the Virginia Derby that is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby is a new and distinct race.)

Category 3: Early-season prep races for three-year-olds worth 10 to 20 points to the winner

Many of the early-season preps are relatively young races with less than 50 years of history. None has produced more than three Kentucky Derby winners. The Holy Bull has been the most productive, churning out three winners even though it’s the third-youngest race in the category, dating back to 1990.

The Jerome S., Sam F. Davis S., and Withers S. have yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, though there are extenuating circumstances surrounding the Jerome and Withers. The Jerome used to be an autumn race and only shifted to its current January date in 2013. The Withers was historically a spring prize until shifting to February in 2012.

Category 4: All prep races for two-year-olds, primarily worth 10 points to the winner

Far and away the most productive prep race for two-year-olds is the Champagne, which has produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners. But it’s also the oldest race in the category, dating back to 1867, and it’s produced only one Kentucky Derby winner since 2000.

The second-oldest race, the Breeders’ Futurity, is also the second-most productive with eight Kentucky Derby winners. The much younger Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, inaugurated in 1984, has done well for its age, producing six Kentucky Derby winners, including a category-topping three winners since 2000.

Conclusions

If you want to have the best shot at winning the Kentucky Derby, Gulfstream Park in Florida is the place to prep. The three Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers hosted by Gulfstream rank among the most productive Kentucky Derby prep races in their categories, both historically and currently.

The Florida Derby is easily the best of the top-tier preps. The Fountain of Youth vies with the San Felipe for top honors among the second-tier preps. And the Holy Bull is the best of the early-season three-year-preps, when considering its young age.

In 2025, Sovereignty contested both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby prior to his victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Among prep races for two-year-olds (none of which take place at Gulfstream Park or in Florida), the Champagne is historically the best, producing 23 Kentucky Derby winners. However, since 2000, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has been the most productive, yielding three Kentucky Derby winners.

Examining all prep races together regardless of category, the Florida Derby is the most productive. It’s produced 26 Kentucky Derby winners in total and eight since 2000. No other Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier matches those numbers.